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How much do Japanese IPOs rise on day one? (2016–2026, 902 IPOs)
Of the 902 IPOs listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from 2016 to 25 Sep 2026, 81% opened above the offer price and 17% opened below it. The median first-day return was +43.0% and the average +74.9%. The average is pulled up by a few huge winners (best +1,090%), so the median is closer to what a typical IPO delivers.
IPOs covered9022016–2026
Median return+43.0%Average +74.9%
Above offer81%Profit if sold at the open
Below offer17%Loss if sold at the open
The 12 companies listed in the last three months (since 22 Jul 2026) had a median return of +20.6% and 25% opened below the offer price, below the all-period median.
First-day results by lead underwriter
Results for each lead underwriter with five or more IPOs since 2016. Among underwriters with ten or more deals, the highest median was Ichiyoshi Securities (+111.4%) and the lowest Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities (+11.6%). The lead underwriter allocates the most shares, so this helps when choosing where to apply for the IPO lottery.
| Lead underwriter | IPOs | Median | Average | Above offer | Below offer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomura Securities | 191 | +32.5% | +52.1% | 80% | 18% |
| SMBC Nikko Securities | 175 | +39.2% | +76.2% | 79% | 19% |
| Mizuho Securities | 175 | +51.6% | +86.6% | 81% | 17% |
| Daiwa Securities | 143 | +52.0% | +76.0% | 85% | 14% |
| SBI Securities | 124 | +60.4% | +96.6% | 84% | 16% |
| Tokai Tokyo Securities | 28 | +22.3% | +46.4% | 82% | 18% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities | 25 | +11.6% | +22.4% | 60% | 40% |
| Okasan Securities | 18 | +53.8% | +89.5% | 83% | 17% |
| Ichiyoshi Securities | 17 | +111.4% | +113.6% | 100% | 0% |
First-day results by offering size
Offering size is offer price × shares offered. The smaller the deal, the fewer shares there are for buyers, and the more first-day prices tend to rise.
| Offering size | IPOs | Median | Average | Above offer | Below offer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under ¥0.5bn | 70 | +177.5% | +216.9% | 99% | 0% |
| ¥0.5–1bn | 205 | +112.6% | +124.5% | 96% | 4% |
| ¥1–3bn | 341 | +45.1% | +62.7% | 86% | 12% |
| ¥3–10bn | 175 | +11.0% | +21.8% | 67% | 31% |
| ¥10bn or more | 111 | +1.5% | +14.8% | 51% | 45% |
First-day results by year
| Year | IPOs | Median | Average | Above offer | Below offer | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | +11.8% | +25.5% | 63% | 37% | Batonz.Co.,Ltd. +154% |
| 2025 | 59 | +30.7% | +42.0% | 81% | 17% | Fuller,Inc. +344% |
| 2024 | 81 | +28.7% | +33.0% | 78% | 19% | JINJIB Co.,Ltd. +127% |
| 2023 | 90 | +28.9% | +67.2% | 71% | 26% | アイデミー +430% |
| 2022 | 85 | +39.7% | +55.3% | 81% | 18% | ウェルプレイド・ライゼスト +430% |
| 2021 | 122 | +38.2% | +57.1% | 83% | 16% | Appirits Inc. +375% |
| 2020 | 92 | +70.4% | +131.6% | 75% | 24% | Headwaters Co.,Ltd +1,090% |
| 2019 | 81 | +51.8% | +78.5% | 90% | 10% | WILLs Inc. +372% |
| 2018 | 89 | +71.9% | +105.8% | 89% | 10% | HEROZ,Inc. +989% |
| 2017 | 90 | +93.6% | +112.4% | 91% | 9% | TRADE WORKS Co.,Ltd +518% |
| 2016 | 83 | +48.2% | +71.4% | 81% | 18% | Globalway,Inc. +373% |
The current year links to Kabutaro's list of upcoming and recent IPOs.
First-day results by listing month
Japanese IPOs bunch up in March and December. When many listings overlap, money is spread thin and first-day gains are said to be smaller.
| Month | IPOs | Median | Average | Above offer | Below offer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2 | +292.8% | +292.8% | 100% | 0% |
| Feb | 43 | +87.5% | +102.0% | 88% | 12% |
| Mar | 160 | +36.6% | +61.6% | 76% | 22% |
| Apr | 67 | +50.0% | +102.7% | 90% | 10% |
| May | 5 | +32.2% | +74.9% | 100% | 0% |
| Jun | 115 | +51.9% | +84.0% | 83% | 14% |
| Jul | 65 | +62.9% | +82.7% | 91% | 9% |
| Aug | 23 | +55.2% | +98.2% | 87% | 13% |
| Sep | 93 | +43.0% | +77.5% | 82% | 15% |
| Oct | 83 | +32.7% | +58.7% | 78% | 22% |
| Nov | 46 | +44.1% | +93.9% | 78% | 20% |
| Dec | 200 | +32.8% | +59.0% | 78% | 21% |
Top 20 first-day gains
| Listed | Company | Lead underwriter | Offer price | Opening price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020.09.29 | Headwaters Co.,Ltd (4011) | Mizuho Securities | ¥2,400 | ¥28,560 | +1,090.0% |
| 2018.04.20 | HEROZ,Inc. (4382) | SMBC Nikko Securities | ¥4,500 | ¥49,000 | +988.9% |
| 2020.06.24 | Ficha Inc. (4052) | SMBC Nikko Securities | ¥520 | ¥4,710 | +805.8% |
| 2020.10.02 | タスキ (2987) | SBI Securities | ¥670 | ¥5,060 | +655.2% |
| 2017.11.29 | TRADE WORKS Co.,Ltd (3997) | Okasan Securities | ¥2,200 | ¥13,600 | +518.2% |
| 2020.07.07 | Branding Engineer (7352) | SBI Securities | ¥490 | ¥2,920 | +495.9% |
| 2020.08.20 | Neural Group Inc. (4056) | Mizuho Securities | ¥900 | ¥5,100 | +466.7% |
| 2020.09.30 | AXIS CO.,LTD. (4012) | SMBC Nikko Securities | ¥1,070 | ¥5,700 | +432.7% |
| 2022.11.30 | ウェルプレイド・ライゼスト (9565) | SBI Securities | ¥1,170 | ¥6,200 | +429.9% |
| 2023.06.22 | アイデミー (5577) | Mizuho Securities | ¥1,050 | ¥5,560 | +429.5% |
| 2020.08.25 | Interfactory,Inc. (4057) | SMBC Nikko Securities | ¥960 | ¥5,080 | +429.2% |
| 2020.10.13 | EARTH INFINITY CO.LTD. (7692) | Mizuho Securities | ¥1,970 | ¥10,410 | +428.4% |
| 2020.11.25 | MIT Holdings CO.,LTD. (4016) | SBI Securities | ¥690 | ¥3,590 | +420.3% |
| 2018.03.28 | アジャイルメディア・ネットワーク (6573) | Mizuho Securities | ¥3,000 | ¥15,470 | +415.7% |
| 2017.09.14 | Wantedly,Inc (3991) | Daiwa Securities | ¥1,000 | ¥5,010 | +401.0% |
| 2021.02.25 | Appirits Inc. (4174) | Mizuho Securities | ¥1,180 | ¥5,600 | +374.6% |
| 2016.04.19 | Globalway,Inc. (3936) | Daiwa Securities | ¥2,960 | ¥14,000 | +373.0% |
| 2019.12.17 | WILLs Inc. (4482) | Mizuho Securities | ¥960 | ¥4,535 | +372.4% |
| 2017.06.15 | bBreak Systems Company,Limited (3986) | SBI Securities | ¥1,670 | ¥7,700 | +361.1% |
| 2018.04.04 | BPLATS,Inc. (4381) | Nomura Securities | ¥2,200 | ¥10,000 | +354.6% |
Worst 20 first-day results (below offer price)
| Listed | Company | Lead underwriter | Offer price | Opening price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018.12.21 | PORT INC. (7047) | Daiwa Securities | ¥1,480 | ¥930 | −37.2% |
| 2020.03.24 | リバーホールディングス (5690) | Nomura Securities | ¥960 | ¥720 | −25.0% |
| 2020.03.17 | ミアヘルサ (7688) | Mizuho Securities | ¥2,330 | ¥1,748 | −25.0% |
| 2021.12.22 | Finatext Holdings Ltd. (4419) | Daiwa Securities | ¥1,290 | ¥990 | −23.3% |
| 2020.03.17 | ドラフト (5070) | SMBC Nikko Securities | ¥1,580 | ¥1,221 | −22.7% |
| 2020.03.09 | フォーラムエンジニアリング (7088) | Nomura Securities | ¥1,310 | ¥1,030 | −21.4% |
| 2016.03.15 | UMCエレクトロニクス (6615) | Mizuho Securities | ¥3,000 | ¥2,480 | −17.3% |
| 2018.12.21 | 自律制御システム研究所 (6232) | Mizuho Securities | ¥3,400 | ¥2,830 | −16.8% |
| 2021.12.23 | クルーバー (7134) | Mizuho Securities | ¥2,160 | ¥1,800 | −16.7% |
| 2024.12.19 | dely (299A) | Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities | ¥1,200 | ¥1,001 | −16.6% |
| 2021.12.22 | THECOO Inc. (4255) | Mizuho Securities | ¥7,200 | ¥6,100 | −15.3% |
| 2021.08.27 | J Frontier Co.,Ltd. (2934) | SBI Securities | ¥4,190 | ¥3,560 | −15.0% |
| 2023.09.26 | AUTOSERVER CO.,LTD. (5589) | SBI Securities | ¥2,670 | ¥2,280 | −14.6% |
| 2016.03.18 | Aidma Marketing Communication Corporation (9466) | Mizuho Securities | ¥1,440 | ¥1,230 | −14.6% |
| 2020.03.13 | KIMURA KOHKI Co.,Ltd. (6231) | Mizuho Securities | ¥2,400 | ¥2,050 | −14.6% |
| 2022.02.03 | Recovery International Co.,Ltd. (9214) | Okasan Securities | ¥3,060 | ¥2,640 | −13.7% |
| 2024.09.26 | KIDS STAR Inc. (248A) | Okasan Securities | ¥2,560 | ¥2,210 | −13.7% |
| 2025.04.07 | IACE TRAVEL Corporation. (343A) | Tokai Tokyo Securities | ¥1,000 | ¥864 | −13.6% |
| 2020.03.10 | VisasQ Inc. (4490) | Mizuho Securities | ¥1,500 | ¥1,310 | −12.7% |
| 2025.12.18 | Mirrativ,Inc. (472A) | Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities | ¥860 | ¥751 | −12.7% |
IPOs listed in the last three months
| Listed | Company | Lead underwriter | Offer price | Opening price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.09.25 | LAYERED Inc. (634A) | SBI Securities | ¥1,400 | ¥2,230 | +59.3% |
| 2026.09.18 | akippa Inc. (627A) | SBI Securities | ¥570 | ¥1,244 | +118.3% |
| 2026.09.18 | Vertex co.,Ltd (623A) | Tokai Tokyo Securities | ¥550 | ¥607 | +10.4% |
| 2026.09.18 | Techno Craft Corporation (622A) | SMBC Nikko Securities | ¥650 | ¥620 | −4.6% |
| 2026.09.17 | Skyfall Inc. (625A) | SBI Securities | ¥1,500 | ¥1,760 | +17.3% |
| 2026.09.16 | Audiostock Inc. (621A) | SBI Securities | ¥1,060 | ¥1,554 | +46.6% |
| 2026.09.16 | OLIVER CORPORATION (619A) | Nomura Securities | ¥305 | ¥310 | +1.6% |
| 2026.09.11 | KOMPEITO Inc. (618A) | SBI Securities | ¥1,600 | ¥1,480 | −7.5% |
| 2026.08.04 | every,Inc. (607A) | SMBC Nikko Securities | ¥230 | ¥294 | +27.8% |
| 2026.07.29 | beABLE CO.,LTD. (604A) | Mizuho Securities | ¥700 | ¥1,016 | +45.1% |
| 2026.07.29 | i GRID SOLUTIONS Inc. (603A) | Nomura Securities | ¥770 | ¥953 | +23.8% |
| 2026.07.22 | TIER IV,Inc. (593A) | Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities | ¥1,085 | ¥1,009 | −7.0% |
For upcoming IPOs and first-day forecasts, see the list of Japanese IPOs.
About this page
| Coverage | IPOs on the Tokyo Stock Exchange since 2016 that Kabutaro recorded in his IPO list. Postponed or cancelled listings are excluded. |
| Return | (Opening price − offer price) ÷ offer price: the profit or loss if you sold at the opening price. |
| Offering size | Offer price × shares offered (new shares plus secondary offering). |
| Updates | The page updates itself when an opening price is added to the IPO list. Currently includes listings up to 25 Sep 2026. |
Past results do not promise future first-day prices. Please apply for IPOs at your own judgement.