Japan Market Daily

On June 30, 2026, the Nikkei 225 extended its gains to close up 364.93 yen at 71,643.15 yen. Investor sentiment was bolstered by overnight rallies in Western equity markets, alongside persistent buying in high-tech shares related to generative AI and autonomous driving technologies. The TOPIX also advanced by 21.72 points to 4,102.82. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross remained locked in a historic weak-yen zone, briefly touching near the 161.70 yen level as demand for the greenback was sustained by widening yield differentials. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's May labor data released today showed the unemployment rate held steady at 2.5 percent, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio stood at 1.26. This reflected continuous improvement in the domestic employment environment, further solidifying market expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

On June 29, 2026, the Nikkei 225 rebounded to close up 520.38 yen at 71,278.22 yen. Investor sentiment was supported by bargain-hunting following the previous weekend's sharp decline, alongside easing Middle East tensions. Dip-buying intensified in leading semiconductor shares such as Kioxia and generative AI-related stocks, driving the overall market higher. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross experienced muted fluctuations, remaining locked in a historic weak-yen zone between 161.20 yen and 161.50 yen, underpinned by persistent expectations of widening yield differentials. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's May commercial sales data released today showed resilient growth in retail sales, indicating steady domestic private consumption while simultaneously reinforcing market expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

On June 28, 2026, while major global financial markets were closed for Sunday, market participants analyzed economic indicators and data from the previous week to prepare for upcoming trading. In recent equity sessions, the Nikkei 225 entered the weekend lower at 70,757.84 yen due to profit-taking. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross remained stable within a historic weak-yen zone in the lower-to-mid 161 yen range, driven by expectations of prolonged high U.S. interest rates and widening yield differentials. Meanwhile, Japan's May core CPI data, which rose 2.5 percent year-on-year to exceed market expectations, continued to fuel speculation regarding future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. In commodities, WTI crude futures maintained a lower stance in the 84-dollar range following the official signing of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, functioning as a stabilizing factor against near-term global inflationary pressures.

On June 27, 2026, while major financial markets were closed for Saturday, the global financial landscape adjusted to Friday's market movements. In the preceding session, the Nikkei 225 snapped its winning streak to close down 1,608.50 yen at 70,757.84 yen due to a technical correction after rapid gains, weekend profit-taking, and overnight losses on Wall Street, which dragged down leading semiconductor shares. In the FX market, steady demand for the greenback kept the USD/JPY cross locked in a historical weak-yen zone in the lower-to-mid 161 yen range to close the week. Meanwhile, Japan's May core CPI data released on Friday, which rose 2.5 percent year-on-year to exceed market forecasts, continued to reinforce expectations of future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, drawing attention toward interest rate trends for the upcoming week.

On June 26, 2026, the Nikkei 225 snapped a three-day rally to close down 1,608.50 yen at 70,757.84 yen. Following the previous day's surge to a record high, profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing dominated the Tokyo market ahead of the weekend. Overnight losses across major Wall Street indexes further weighed on investor sentiment, triggering a broad sell-off centered on leading semiconductor and AI-related shares that had driven recent gains. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross hovered in the lower-to-mid 161 yen range, maintaining its persistent weak-yen tone as expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut continued to push back. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's core consumer price index for May, excluding fresh food, rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier, exceeding market forecasts and reinforcing expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

On June 25, 2026, the Nikkei 225 rallied sharply for the first time in three sessions, surging by 3,191.37 yen to close at a fresh historic high of 72,366.34 yen. Triggered by the robust earnings report released by Micron Technology on the previous evening, early buying dominated semiconductor and tech-related shares, prompting a broad-based market advance that surpassed its previous record set on June 22. The TOPIX also rebounded significantly. In the FX market, persistent buying of the greenback accelerated amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate hikes later this year, keeping the USD/JPY cross heavily in a weak-yen zone at 161.78 yen in New York. On the policy front, the LDP's Research Commission on Fiscal Reform compiled a proposal for the "Basic Policy 2026," recommending a shift towards lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio and establishing a new investment framework.

On June 24, 2026, the Nikkei 225 extended its decline, closing down 613.41 yen at 69,174.97 yen. Following overnight losses in U.S. semiconductor stocks, risk-off selling dominated the Tokyo market, hitting major shares such as Tokyo Electron. Trading was further subdued by a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the upcoming earnings release from Micron Technology, with futures-led selling pushing the benchmark index down to the mid-68,000 range during afternoon trading. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross remained locked in a tight, weak-yen range in the mid-to-upper 161 yen level, driven by persistent buying of the greenback amid widening yield differentials. On the policy front, Prime Minister Takaichi announced plans to establish a new investment framework aimed at a strong and wealthy Japan, initiating a drastic reform of the state subsidy and fund systems during a joint economic council meeting.

On June 23, 2026, the Nikkei 225 snapped an eight-day winning streak to plummet by 2,565.58 yen, closing at 69,788.38 yen and falling back below the 70,000 threshold. Following its rapid expansion to the historic 72,000 level on the previous day, profit-taking dominated the Tokyo market amid strong anxieties over near-term overheating. Overnight losses in the U.S. Nasdaq index and lingering worries over extended high interest rates further exacerbated the downturn, triggering a broad sell-off centered on leading AI and semiconductor-related shares that had previously driven the rally. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross maintained its persistent weak-yen tone fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will prolong its tight monetary policy, with the bank telegraphic transfer middle (TTM) rates hovering firmly in the lower to mid-161 yen range between 161.16 yen and 161.63 yen.

On June 22, 2026, the Nikkei 225 advanced for an eighth consecutive session, closing up 1,103.90 yen at a historic high of 72,353.96 yen, breaching the 72,000 threshold for the first time on a closing basis and marking its sixth consecutive record close. Buying intensified in AI and semiconductor-related shares following revelations of a massive public-private investment package exceeding 370 trillion yen targeting the government's "Strategic 17 Sectors." The benchmark index briefly reached an intraday high of 72,831.73 yen. Concurrently, the TOPIX also hit a record high, advancing 50.09 points to 4,095.05. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross hovered in the 161 yen range, driven by persistent dollar demand amid expectations of prolonged high U.S. interest rates, keeping the market stable in a weak-yen tone.

On June 21, 2026, while major global financial markets were closed for Sunday, the financial landscape retained a strong risk-on sentiment following the official signing of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and resilient U.S. economic data from the previous week. In recent equity trading, the Nikkei 225 settled at its historic high of 71,250.06 yen, while Wall Street saw the S&P 500 hovering in the 7,430s and the Dow Jones around the 51,200 level. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross remained locked in a deep weak-yen zone between 161.10 and 161.20 yen, driven by persistent dollar demand amid widening yield differentials and expectations of extended high U.S. interest rates. In commodities, WTI crude futures maintained a downward trajectory in the 84-dollar range per barrel as geopolitical anxieties eased, helping to mitigate global inflationary pressures ahead of the upcoming trading week.

On June 20, 2026, while major financial markets were closed for Saturday, the global financial landscape adjusted to the lingering effects of Friday's overseas market movements, characterized by easing geopolitical risks and persistent worries over extended high interest rates. On the preceding day, U.S. stock markets saw steady gains with technology and semiconductor-related shares driven by resilient May retail and pending home sales data, alongside the Federal Reserve's hawkish rate projections. In the FX market, following the Nikkei 225 closing at a fresh historic high of 71,250.06 yen on Friday, the USD/JPY cross maintained its upward momentum to close the week in the lower 161 yen range, underpinned by expectations of wider interest rate differentials. In the commodity space, WTI crude futures maintained a downward trend as supply anxieties cooled following the official signing of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, mitigating near-term inflationary pressures.

On June 19, 2026, the Nikkei 225 advanced for a seventh consecutive session, closing up 196.57 yen at a fresh historic high of 71,250.06 yen. Following overnight gains on Wall Street where the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) hit a record high, the Tokyo market opened sharply higher, with the benchmark index surging by nearly 900 yen to approach the 72,000 mark during early trading. Although profit-taking subsequently dragged the index into negative territory during the afternoon session due to short-term overheating, late-day buying staged a resilient recovery into the close. Sentiment remained underpinned by the easing of Middle East tensions following the official signing of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross accelerated its upward momentum into the lower 161 yen range, driven by lingering dollar demand amid widening yield differentials following the hawkish FOMC signals.

On June 18, 2026, the Nikkei 225 advanced for a sixth consecutive session, closing up 1,151.24 yen at a record high of 71,053.49 yen, breaching the 70,000 threshold for the first time on a closing basis. Investor sentiment was bolstered by news that the U.S. and Iran officially signed a ceasefire memorandum, easing geopolitical risks. Although Wall Street benchmarks declined following the FOMC meeting where interest rates were held steady but a hawkish shift indicated a potential rate hike later this year, the Tokyo market saw aggressive risk-on buying led by AI and semiconductor shares. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross faced upward pressure with 161 yen in sight due to widening yield differentials. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's May trade balance recorded a deficit of 378.6 billion yen due to high energy import costs.

On June 17, 2026, the Nikkei 225 advanced for a fifth consecutive session, closing up 497.75 yen at a fresh historic high of 69,902.25 yen, marking its third consecutive record close. Buying intensified as investors welcomed the decline in crude oil futures following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, briefly pushing the benchmark index to an intraday high of 70,125.75 yen to breach the 70,000 threshold for a second straight day. Despite a lower start, semiconductor shares like Lasertec surged on easing geopolitical risks to lead the market turnaround. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross fluctuated between the high 159 range and near 161 yen. Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fourth consecutive meeting, while adopting a hawkish stance that strongly signaled potential rate hikes later this year.

On June 16, 2026, the Nikkei 225 advanced for a fourth consecutive session, closing up 87.00 yen at a fresh record high of 69,404.50 yen. Following the Bank of Japan's decision at its monetary policy meeting to raise its policy rate to around 1 percent and suspend the reduction of its government bond purchases, futures-led buying briefly propelled the benchmark index above the historic 70,000 threshold for the first time during early afternoon trading. Although profit-taking subsequently erased most of the gains, leading chip shares such as Kioxia supported the market, driven by overnight gains in U.S. semiconductor stocks and reports of a signed ceasefire memorandum between the U.S. and Iran. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross remained stable in the lower 160 range with the TTM rate at 160.28 yen, underpinned by persistent interest rate differentials. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's revised Q1 real GDP was downgraded to an annualized 1.8 percent expansion due to sluggish corporate capital spending.

On June 15, 2026, the Nikkei 225 extended its rally for a third consecutive session, surging by 3,297.46 yen to close at a fresh historic high of 69,317.50 yen, marking the second-largest single-day point gain in history. Following an early morning announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding a ceasefire agreement to end hostilities with Iran, expectations of a significant reduction in Middle East geopolitical risks sparked a broad-based market rally. Easing inflation anxieties prompted a massive influx of investment capital back into leading AI and semiconductor-related shares. In the FX market, the ceasefire news accelerated yen selling and dollar buying, keeping the USD/JPY TTM rate elevated at 160.18 yen. While long-term interest rates eased, buying interest expanded into previously lagging domestic demand-oriented sectors, lifting the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) to its own record closing high.

On June 14, 2026, while major financial markets were closed for Sunday, the positive sentiment from the previous week's risk-on rally continued, driven by optimism over U.S.-Iran peace talks. In recent trading sessions, the Nikkei 225 closed at 66,020.04 yen, while on Wall Street, the S&P 500 settled at 7,431.46 and the Dow Jones at 51,202 dollars, showing clear tech-led short covering as geopolitical risks eased. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross hovered around 160.23 yen, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 4.489 percent and the 10-year JGB yield at 2.637 percent, maintaining a weak-yen tone ahead of the two-day BOJ monetary policy meeting starting tomorrow. In commodities, WTI crude futures plummeted to 84.88 dollars per barrel as supply anxieties cooled. Geopolitically, the UK and Japanese prime ministers held a summit, announcing an agreement on economic security and a massive investment package worth approximately 18 billion pounds.

On June 13, 2026, while major financial markets were closed for Saturday, the global financial landscape reflected the lingering effects of a sharp risk-on shift driven by hopes for a final ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. On the night of June 12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wall Street extended its gains, closing up 353.54 dollars at 51,202.29 dollars, after President Trump expressed optimism regarding an imminent peace agreement. Although Iranian officials denied the claims, investor sentiment was bolstered by the potential easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, driving gains across European equities and the Shanghai Composite into the weekend. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross stabilized in the mid-160 range. The yen remained under pressure amid ongoing speculations that the Bank of Japan will debate lifting its policy rate to around 1 percent next week, while traders remained alert to possible currency intervention.

On June 12, 2026, the Nikkei 225 rallied sharply for a second consecutive session, closing up 1,802.77 yen at 66,020.04 yen. Following a strong performance on Wall Street where the Dow Jones surged 929 points and the Nasdaq advanced, buying dominated the Tokyo market from early trading. Investor sentiment improved significantly on optimism that the Middle East conflict is easing, triggered by reports that a final agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end hostilities is close, which pushed crude oil prices lower and prompted a major rebound in AI and semiconductor-related shares, briefly lifting the benchmark index back above the 67,000 threshold. In the FX market, however, the yen remained weak, trading in the mid-160 range around 160.50-51 yen per dollar, as lingering caution over the lack of a definitive breakthrough in the peace talks sustained some safe-haven demand for the greenback.

On June 11, 2026, the Nikkei 225 recorded a marginal gain to snap a two-day decline, closing up 38 yen at 64,217 yen. Sparked by escalating Middle East tensions and dimming prospects for an immediate end to the U.S.-Iran conflict, broad-based selling initially flooded the Tokyo market, dragging the benchmark index down by over 1,800 yen during early trading. However, dip-buying subsequently emerged in deeply discounted AI and semiconductor-related shares, erasing most losses to end slightly positive. In the FX market, safe-haven flows and rising yields strengthened the greenback, pushing the USD/JPY TTM rate up to 160.61 yen. While the U.S. May Consumer Price Index matched expectations with a muted initial reaction, Wall Street rallied overnight, with the S&P 500 surging 127.31 points to 7,394.30 following reports that the U.S. called off scheduled strikes on Iran and reached a ceasefire agreement.

On June 10, 2026, the Nikkei 225 turned lower, closing down 1,237 yen at 64,179 yen. Dominated by overnight losses in U.S. technology shares and escalating Middle East tensions, the Tokyo market faced early selling pressure. Speculative positioning ahead of the weekend's major SQ settlement further exacerbated the drop, pushing the benchmark index down by nearly 1,700 yen at one point during the afternoon session, as investors pulled back to hedge against potential upside surprises in the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report. In the FX market, solid speculations regarding further Fed rate hikes spurred dollar buying, keeping the USD/JPY cross well above the 160 threshold, with the New York close around 160.36 yen. Domestically, market attention focused heavily on growing speculations that the Bank of Japan will debate raising its policy rate to around 1 percent at its monetary policy meeting next week.

On June 9, 2026, the Nikkei 225 surged to record its first gain in four sessions, closing up 1,392.03 yen at 65,416.63 yen. Reversing the previous day's sharp losses, broad-based buying flooded the Tokyo market following a rebound in U.S. chip shares on Wall Street. Active short-covering propelled heavyweight tech components, including Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Kioxia. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross hovered at a weak-yen level between 160.18 and 160.20 yen. Concurrently, the yield on the newly issued 10-year Japanese government bond rose by 0.050 percentage points to settle at 2.665 percent. In Europe, the European Commission unveiled its 21st sanctions package against Russia aimed at undermining Moscow's war economy, proposing a temporary freeze on the Russian oil price cap along with asset freezes targeting approximately 90 banks and over 30 financial entities in third countries.

On June 8, 2026, the Nikkei 225 plummeted for a third consecutive session, closing down 2,563.00 yen at 64,024.60 yen. Triggered by a surge in U.S. bond yields following last week's robust non-farm payrolls report, which had dragged the Nasdaq down by over 4 percent, aggressive selling flooded the Tokyo market, particularly hitting the previously soaring AI and semiconductor shares. The benchmark index's intraday decline briefly reached 3,181 yen, marking the largest drop of the year, while reports of mutual direct missile strikes between Iran and Israel further fueled market anxiety. In the FX market, renewed speculation over potential Fed rate hikes accelerated dollar buying, keeping the USD/JPY TTM rate at 160.38 yen. On the macroeconomic front, Japan's revised Q1 real GDP data released on the same day showed an annualized expansion of 2.1 percent.

On June 7, 2026, while major financial markets were closed for Sunday, underlying tensions remained high ahead of the upcoming trading week in the wake of Friday's surprisingly hot U.S. payrolls data. The stronger-than-expected May non-farm employment report rekindled concerns over potential further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, prompting the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to jump into the 4.53 percent range. In the FX market, a combination of unwinding safe-haven dollar plays and widening yield differentials left the USD/JPY cross settled in the 160.30 range, elevating market alertness regarding potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities. Meanwhile, the commodity space continued to digest reports of a tentative U.S.-Iran agreement on a 60-day ceasefire extension and the step-by-step reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI crude futures holding around the mid-92 dollar level per barrel as easing immediate inflation fears battled prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates.

On June 6, 2026, while major financial markets were closed for Saturday, global sentiment was heavily influenced by the previous night's unexpectedly strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report for May. Non-farm employment surged by 172,000, nearly doubling the market consensus of approximately 90,000, alongside significant upward revisions to the prior two months' data. This rekindled speculations of further rate hikes by the Fed, prompting the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to jump into the 4.53 percent range. In the FX market, dollar buying accelerated sharply, pushing the USD/JPY cross back over the 160 threshold to peak near 160.35 yen. Concurrently, gold prices plunged on rate-hike anxieties, while WTI crude futures settled around the mid-92 dollar level as potential economic slowing balanced out ongoing Middle East supply worries, highlighting a market dominated by a surging dollar and rising bond yields.

On June 5, 2026, the Nikkei 225 extended its losses sharply, closing down 882.57 yen at 66,588.12 yen. Following the previous day's decline in semiconductor shares on Wall Street, heavy selling flooded the Tokyo market, particularly hitting heavyweight tech stocks like Tokyo Electron and Adventest, briefly dragging the benchmark index down by over 1,600 yen to breach the 66,000 threshold. Geopolitically, while a renewed ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon pushed crude oil futures lower and eased inflation fears, a cautious sentiment persisted as Hezbollah vowed to continue strikes and U.S.-Iran tensions simmered. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross traded within an extremely narrow range between 159.90 and 160.02 yen, as market participants held back from making bold moves ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls data scheduled for release later in the evening.

On June 4, 2026, the Nikkei 225 plummeted sharply, closing down 931 yen at 67,470 yen. Following the previous session's historic run that breached the 68,000 threshold for the first time, the Tokyo market faced heavy profit-taking. Sentiment was further dampened by Wall Street's decline, where the Dow Jones fell for the first time in six sessions as Middle East tensions flared up again following reports that Iran suspended peace talks with the U.S. and launched missile strikes against Kuwait and Bahrain. With crude oil futures and U.S. bond yields ticking upward, broad-based selling intensified in Tokyo, particularly hitting AI and semiconductor-related shares such as SoftBank Group and Kioxia Holdings due to short-term overheating concerns. In the FX market, the USD/JPY cross hovered in the high 159 to near 160 range, keeping investors on high alert for potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities.

On June 3, 2026, the Nikkei 225 rallied sharply, closing up 1,667.89 yen at a fresh historic high of 68,402.13 yen, breaching the 68,000 threshold for the first time on both an intraday and closing basis. Following a record-setting session on Wall Street where all three major indexes hit all-time highs, the Tokyo market experienced explosive buying centered on semiconductor and technology shares driven by robust AI demand, with the benchmark index briefly surging over 2,000 yen. In the FX market, a rise in crude oil futures accelerated dollar buying, pushing the USD/JPY cross into the 160 range for the first time in about a month since the suspected government intervention on April 30. In response to the rapid currency move, Finance Minister Katayama issued a warning to the market, stating that authorities stand ready to take appropriate action whenever necessary.

On June 2, 2026, the Nikkei 225 snapped its winning streak and fell for the first time in three days, closing down 200.09 yen at 66,734.24 yen. Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, the Tokyo market faced modest profit-taking from recent record highs. While the benchmark index briefly plummeted by over 1,300 yen during the session to touch the 65,500 range, a subsequent rally in Kioxia Holdings helped alleviate excessive pessimism and supported the downside. In the FX market, the yen weakened slightly, trading at 159.68-69 yen per dollar. Meanwhile, crude oil markets experienced volatility as reports of Iran suspending talks with the U.S. briefly pushed WTI futures into the 94-dollar range per barrel, before easing back to the low 91-dollar range following a social media post by President Trump indicating potential progress toward a memorandum of understanding.

On June 1, 2026, the Nikkei 225 snapped its four-day winning streak, closing down 420 yen at 65,909.50 yen. Profit-taking dominated early trading following the previous weekend's record-high close. Investor sentiment was also weighed down by growing concerns over an economic slowdown in Asia, triggered by China's official manufacturing PMI for May falling below the critical 50-point threshold. In the FX market, the USD/JPY pair hovered in the mid-159 range, maintaining a weak-yen tone. In commodity markets, crude oil futures remained at recent lows, with Brent crude trading near 92 dollars and WTI crude in the 87-dollar range per barrel, buoyed by expectations of a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Domestically, the Ministry of Finance's MoF business survey for Q1 showed an annual increase in capital expenditure across all industries, indicating resilient corporate spending in Japan.